Super Bowl XLIII Preview

Well, the end of the football season is here. And no, I don't mean the Pro Bowl. Super Bowl XLIII (or 43 for those who don't know their numerals) promises to be...well, probably mediocre at best. Sorry, it's just not the most riveting match up. So we'll do a little preview of the game but the picks won't come until the week of the game.

First thing to watch in this game is how the Arizona defense plays. We all know that the Steelers defense is incredible and can stop pretty much anything you hurl in their path. But the Cardinals defense has been some what of an enigma over the past few weeks. After dropping the second to last game against the Patriots by a score of 47-7, many thought there would be no way that this team could make it to the Super Bowl with a defense like that. Let's face it, during the regular season they gave up 30 or more points 5 times, 3 of those 5 times allowing more than 47 points. That is not good at all. But in the playoffs, they taken on a completely new persona and have played lights out--except for the Eagles comeback. They were able to stop two of the NFL's best running games in the Falcons and Panthers in the opening two rounds of the playoffs. Against Philadelphia they were able to keep the Eagles out of the end zone for the first half but allowed 19 straight points to allow the Eagles to take the lead. So is the defense reverting to their old ways or was it just a temporary lapse in focus?

The next thing to look for is the match up of Larry Fitzgerald vs the Steelers secondary. Look, we all know that Troy Polamalu is a natural ball-hawk and has tremendous coverage skill. But only so much of the passing game can be defended by the safety before the Cardinals exploit the hole Polamalu vacates. How much can the Steelers defense focus on the 6'3 Fitzgerald before Breaston, Urban, or Boldin (still questionable for the game) find holes in the defense. Fitzgerald can be effective as both a decoy and a star receiver. He's gone over 100 yards in every game so far in the playoffs and scored at least once. He will probably be the best receiver the Steelers have faced all season (sorry Chad and TO, you just don't take the cake as elite in my book this year) and could pose serious threats to the Cardinals keeping this one close, and even possibly winning.

Third match up, Steelers D-Line vs. Cardinals O-Line. This one should be a clear cut advantage for the Steelers. Arizona has allowed 3 sacks while on offense (2 coming against the Eagles). When you think about it though, that is not all too bad considering some of the defensive ends and tackles the Cardinals have faced. Victor Abiamiri and Trent Cole were able to sack Warner twice and the third came from Carolina's Damione Lewis. John Abraham, Julius Peppers, Brodrick Bunkley, and Jonathon Babineaux (all very skilled players on the defensive line) were unable to bring down Warner due to the play of the Cardinals O-Line. The Cardinals O-Line averages about 6'4, 315 lbs compared to the Steelers defensive line average of 6'3, 300 lbs. That may seem like advantage Arizona but the Steelers D-Line is incredibly strong and surprisingly quick and able to get into the backfield to break up plays. Combined with Dick LeBeau's aggressive use of blitzing linebackers and defensive backs, the defensive line will give Arizona plenty to handle throughout the game. A lot of the success of both teams lies in these respective lines. Arizona thrives on its passing game so they need Warner to stay up. Pittsburgh thrives on its defensive pressure and forcing bad plays. However, with Arizona's use of quick passes and screens, I have to give a very slight edge to the Cardinals on this one.

Fourth match up would have to be Steelers running game vs. Cardinals running game. The Steelers defense averages only 80 yards a game by opposing running backs during the regular season. The Cardinals do have quite a bit of depth at the running back position and Wisenhunt could end up looking like a genius for keeping James out of some of the regular season games and saving his workhorse for postseason play. Rookie Tim Hightower has great vision and speed, plus a little power to complete his game and is a potential homerun threat every time he touches the ball. JJ Arrington and Edgerrin James are also potential homerun threats but Arrington doesn't get many snaps and James is often used as a blocker. The most shocking part of the Cardinals running attack? They averaged only 70 yards a game on the ground, last in the NFL. You'd think this would put this clearly in the win column for the Steelers right? Wrong. The Steelers average about 105 yards a game on the ground and the Cardinals only allow an average of 110. And when the Cardinals defense went up against two of the best rushing attacks in the NFL in round one and two, they allowed a two game total of 135 yards. The Steelers have Willie Parker as their main workhorse but also rotate Russell, Davis, and the resurgent Mewelde Moore into the line-up when possible. Parker is clearly the best back out of the group with a good balance of speed and power to go along with a good offensive line in front of him. Moore presents some playmaking ability but the bulk of the carries are likely to go to Parker. In the end, the Steelers can win the running game battle if their offensive line can get off the ball and get blocks down field on a very aggressive Arizona run defense. In the end though, I'd have to call this a pretty even match up.

Final, and the most unpredictable match up, is the turnover battle. The Cards have been exceptional at forcing turnovers, including picking off Jake Delhomme 5 times in the game in Carolina. They've intercepted 8 passes in 3 games and the Steelers have reeled in 4 in 2 games. The Cards have recovered 4 fumbles and the Steelers 2. However, the most telling stat of this is how the offenses have fared in the turnover battle thus far in the postseason. Cardinals have thrown 2 interceptions and have lost only one possession by way of fumble. The Steelers, however, have thrown 0 interceptions and only lost one fumble (on a play that was a interception, then fumble on the return). This pretty much means that both defenses are exceptional at forcing turnovers--Cardinals +9, Steelers +5--but do not turn it over on offense. The main indicator of who will turn the ball over more is based on which team applies the most pressure defensively on the other teams quarterback...or maybe its just luck that's essential to winning this match up.

This is one of the toughest games to analyze before hand in a long time. Arizona could show up as they have in the playoffs so far, or just not show up at all like they have done at times in the regular season. Pittsburgh has faced some of the better teams in the regular season and playoffs and played extremely well. So maybe this game won't be so mediocre after all?

-Casey