The biggest surprise in my mind this year in the NFL is the Carolina Panthers. Lets face the facts about why it's a big surprise, and why they're going far in the playoffs.
1) Delhomme can be awful: Jake has an 82.0 passer rating this year so far. Granted, I've seen a few of his picks, not his fault, and others are so awful it makes me sick. He has 14 TD to his 12 INT, not a stunning ratio. The funnier thing is some of his awful games are against bad teams, or when on the road. He threw 1 TD and 4 INT in a WIN against Oakland (17-6). Then one against KC, Chicago, he's thrown a total of 5 against TB, and Denver. What's bad is the fact that he's awful on the road. The upside? If they win against the Giants, they've practically sealed home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, which to an NFC South team is practically the golden ticket to not losing. NO NFC South teams have lost at home to another NFC south team, and only two have lost at home to a team period. The Panthers are undefeated at home, and the only other team in the NFL to be that good at home is Tampa Bay.
2) Steve Smith is their biggest catcher: this is a good AND bad thing. I remember one year, I believe when the Bears went to the Super Bowl, the Panthers were in a bad rut. Smith was their ONLY go-to guy that was consistent and dangerous. The Bears double covered the guy, stuck over the top help, etc. What did Smith do? Just bust loose for 171 yards, that's all. If Smith can beat double coverage, which he very easily can ("how" is a question for the ages), then the Panthers need only one thing: One other receiver to step up and be available for the short range passes. That way you have 2 defensive backs running with Smith, and that middle lane open for nice 5/10 to 20 yard pick ups.
3) Their Running Game is just...wow: The dual attack of Williams and Stewart is just ridiculous if it gets rolling. The Giants, and any other team that doesn't a 300 yard bomb dropped on them by the running game, will be sure to step up the run defense. They have the second best in the NFC, but will that be enough? The dangerous duo got 108 yards on Chicago's defense early in the year, the closest comparison to the Giants. Yea, their 300 yard game against a good Tampa Defense is impressive, but even if you leave out that game from TB's record, they still have a rushing defense that's just a bit better than the 49ers. The key? The Carolina Offensive line did GREAT at getting those blocks in. They got about 130 or so against Denver, but I feel this team doesn't want to rush the tempo. They can run that clock out so quickly, and as a defense you still can't come up and stick more men in the box because you're one mistake away from Steve Smith (or even Muhammed) burning you down the fade route or a nice deep slant.
4) The Red Zone Offense: These guys are destructive once they get within 20 yards of the endzone. Lets talk about their 3rd best red zone offense; like how they score about 93% of the time, and put up 7 about 64% of the time. The only two better teams are Dallas and Indy, so despite Delhomme's problems they can punch it in.
5) Time management: Here's a double edge sword. By taking forever to score through running and short passes, with the occasional Steve Smith wonder catch, you get to control the tempo and momentum of the game. If Carolina scores in the first quarter, they may have eaten a good third to half of the quarter doing it. For the opposing team, that leaves them less time to score if the game turns into a shootout, but for Carolina it can hurt too: If their opponents score and are up by 4 with 2 minutes to play, that takes away their dynamic run game as a very viable option. Sure they could run a bit, but not likely at all. Do they have that passing game, the short west coast offense, to really get a 2-minute drill going? Carolina averages close to 6 plays per drive, and only one team averages more running plays (The Giants). This team does need to show it's ability to not just run down time with a lead, but to also score a field goal, and even a touchdown, with little time left and maybe only 1-2 time outs. This is their greatest weakness, especially with a Delhomme who makes plenty of mistakes, and a receiving core that isn't tested nearly as much as it should. If you look at the top passing teams in the NFC, the Saints and Cardinals, their receiving core has a good distribution of yards. Steven Smith alone has close to half the teams total receiving yards, with Muhammad a good 400 yards behind. Even Steve Breaston of the Cardinals is within 100 yards of Boldin and about 300 yards away from Fitzgerald. On the Panthers, after Muhammad, there's Donte Rosario with a mere 209 receiving yards to Smith's 1240.
While Smith can get open and make plays despite every team's defense preparing to stop him, that may not work well during playoffs. With their run game highlighted now in the Tampa Bay game, defenses will look to stop the run and exploit Delhommes bad decision making and faltering accuracy when under duress. Delhomme needs to get more receivers involved so the Defense is kept guessing and can't cheat on coverage of Smith and Muhammad. Tight ends need to be making catches, more screens and other plays to beat the rush. Diversity in play calling will help this team make the final push
Finally, I heard on ESPN today someone saying how the Panthers have hit their stride. I couldn't agree more, and I say this is why this team is going to go to the NFC championship and beyond . Yes, I said it. Think about it, teams who go all the way hit their stride now, when it really counts. The Giant's were a dark horse last year, and the Cowboys were all the talk. The Cowboys hit their rough spot during the playoffs, while the Giants seemed to finally have everything together just in time. This year, the Giant's are now deflating just before playoffs, after a terrific and powerful start. The Cowboys are starting to hit a stride, but I wonder if that's only because of the teams they're now playing. A win over the Giants was big, but at home and against a struggling team isn't impressive. The cowboys will not have homefield advantage in the playoffs, they will suffer from a team chemistry that rests on winning and is very vulnerable to any small bumps. They have a quarterback who has not performed well in playoffs, and a wideout who makes too much noise when in playoffs you need to focus (and who likes to drop passes too). The Panthers are a selfless team who do not make noise, who do not take their eyes off the prize. They were not given much attention at the start of the year compared to other NFC teams, and yet they seem the more consistently strong ones.
Lets not count them out, lets not count out that entire division. The NFC East is good, but I'm putting my money on the NFC South. Even the Falcons or Buc's could easily rain on the NFC East's parade given a shot in the playoffs.
_-Matt
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